India's economy is likely to grow by 6.5 per cent in the current and the next financial year, an EY report said, attributing lower than anticipated expansion in the September quarter to fall in private consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation. Real GDP growth eased to a seven-quarter low of 5.4 per cent in July-September -- the second quarter of the current 2024-25 fiscal year.
While this will incur a revenue loss amounting to 0.2 per cent of GDP, it will provide a strong boost to consumer sentiment and spending, points out Rajani Sinha.
Three years after India declared its goal to become a net-zero economy by 2070, the policy design for achieving the target has begun, with the NITI Aayog forming dedicated multi-sectoral committees to prepare a transition plan. In 2021, India joined a select group of nations that set a target year for becoming net-zero carbon economy. At COP26 in Glasgow, Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined a five-pronged 'Panchamitra' climate action target for India and committed to a net-zero target by 2070, joining nations like the US, the UK, and China.
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
Domestic rating agency ICRA on Monday said Indian companies are likely to clock 7-8 per cent revenue growth during the March quarter of the current fiscal year, led by revival in rural demand and uptick in government spending. ICRA expects the private capital expenditure (capex) cycle to remain measured in view of the uncertainties around geopolitical developments and relatively subdued outlook on merchandise exports from India.
'But this Budget alone will not fix what ails the Indian economy.'
'...he keeps his campaign promises, does what he said he will do which led to his huge victory.'
In a significant change to regulations, oil and gas regulator PNGRB has proposed a new policy of how tariffs for pipelines carrying gas to users will be determined, and proposed charging city gas entities selling CNG and piped cooking gas to households at the lowest rates.
This will be the first full-year Budget of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government since it came to power for a third consecutive term in July last year.
'Market corrections are a natural part of investing, so it's essential to remain focused on long-term financial goals.'
'There's a misconception that all Rs 1 lakh crore will be spent immediately, leading to higher consumption of FMCG goods, travel, and vehicle purchases.' 'While some of this money will go toward consumption, not all of it will.' 'The impact depends on where people deploy their savings.'
'He didn't implement good policies for good politics.' 'He never worked on comprehensive policy-making.' 'In Kejriwal's own constituency youths are jobless.'
Domestic steel prices have seen an increase over the past couple of months in anticipation of a safeguard duty, but a looming global trade war is likely to weigh as threat of import rises and prospect of export flounders. Data from BigMint showed that in March 2025, hot rolled coil (HRC) prices ex-Mumbai increased by Rs 600 per tonne month-on-month (M-o-M), rising from Rs 48,400 per tonne in February to Rs 49,000 per tonne.
The 31st meeting of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council, held in December 2018, deferred a decision to reduce the GST rate for cement from 28 per cent to 18 per cent. This was despite recognising that cement - along with automobile parts - remained among the few mass-consumption items still taxed at the highest slab, which was originally meant for luxury and sin goods.
The trigger for international gold prices rising to $3,000 per ounce was Germany's upcoming heavy government borrowing.
Three policymakers aware of the central bank's deliberations on the Budget said they are combing through the numbers to test how Jaitley struck a balance, and question some of the assumptions.
'We are not incentivising the old tax scheme. These taxpayers will also shift to the new regime after comparison.'
Buoyed by over 17 per cent of industrial growth in April,the highest for 2010 so far, Planning Commission on Friday said the government's policies were "working" and that it should continue with gradual withdrawal of stimulus.
'The central bank has highlighted that the slowdown in growth has been limited to a few sectors and overall growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.'
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty declined nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday, falling for the fourth day running amid profit-taking by cautious investors ahead of the results of the Lok Sabha polls. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 667.55 points or 0.89 per cent to settle at 74,502.90. It went below the 75,000 mark to hit the day's low of 74,454.55, plunging 715.9 points or 0.95 per cent.
Let's wait for the monetary policy on February 8 -- to see how it complements the fiscal commitments, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday raised India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 6.4 per cent, from 6 per cent, saying that robust domestic momentum has offset headwinds from high food inflation and weak exports. The US-based rating agency, however, has cut growth estimates for the next fiscal (2024-25) to 6.4 per cent, as it expects growth to slow in the second half (October-March) of the current fiscal, on higher base impact and subdued global growth.
Widespread use of crypto assets, including stablecoins, can have a negative impact on the macroeconomic and financial stability of a country, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday. In its Financial Stability Report (FSR), the banking regulator highlighted that excessive use of crypto assets can reduce effectiveness of monetary policy, worsen fiscal risks, circumvent capital flow management measures, divert resources available for financing the real economy and threaten global financial stability.
Outgoing Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Tuesday that restoring inflation-growth balance is the most important task ahead of the central bank. Addressing a press conference on his last day as the central bank chief, Das said his successor will have to navigate the changing world order, effectively deal with cyber threats, and focus on harnessing new technologies.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
'The Budget numbers presented severely underestimate the magnitude of the unstated fiscal crisis that we went through in 2018-2019, which cannot be conceivably be fully reversed in 2019-2020,' points out Rathin Roy, director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
Fitch Ratings director Thomas Rookmaaker said India's debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to rise to 76 per cent from 70 per cent currently due to wider fiscal deficit and low economic growth.
Indian economy is in a sweet spot, with a mix of solid growth and moderating inflation, Moody's Ratings said, forecasting a 7.2 per cent GDP growth in the 2024 calendar year and 6.6 per cent in the next. In its Global Macro Outlook 2025-26, the rating agency said the global economy has shown remarkable resilience in bouncing back from supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, an energy and food crisis after the Russia-Ukraine war began, high inflation and consequent monetary policy tightening.
RBI may think twice before agreeing with suggestions of a rate cut.
In a virtual briefing, Royce Murray, assistant secretary for Border and Immigration Policy, US DHS, in response to a query related to the October 22 charter flight that deported a batch of Indian nationals, said, "no minor" among them on that removal flight, adding these were all male and female adults.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has said that India's economic growth in 2008-09 is estimated to have fallen below 7 per cent and is likely to remain at that level in the current fiscal on the back of fiscal and monetary initiatives.
From FY20 to FY24, the revenue forgone due to tax incentives for individuals and Hindu undivided families stood at Rs 8.7 trillion, significantly higher than the Rs 4.53 trillion forgone for corporations.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
Benchmark interest rate hiked by 50 basis points to 3-year high at 5.90 per cent. Economic growth projection for FY23 cut to 7% from 7.2% estimated in August. GDP expected to grow at 6.3% in September quarter, 4.6% each in December and March quarters.
India will need to grow at an average 7.8 per cent to become a high-income country by 2047, a World Bank report said on Friday. To achieve this goal India would require reforms in financial sector as well as in land and labour market, the World Bank said in its India Country Memorandum titled 'Becoming a High-Income Economy in a generation'.
India's fiscal deficit trends are a bit like an alcoholic trying, unsuccessfully, to reform. Virtue does not last for too long, says Shankar Acharya.
'This government has always been fiscally conservative. It never resorted to fiscal profligacy.'
India will unveil its much-awaited new Foreign Trade Policy 2023-28 on Friday, with a view to boost exports amid slowing global trade. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will announce the foreign trade policy, according to the ministry. The current foreign trade policy (2015-20) is in force till March 31, 2022.
Although its ratings outlook for foreign currency and local currency is stable, Moody's outlook for the country says it faces challenges in macroeconomic management and a backlog of structural reforms. "India's ratings are based on the assessment of the country's moderate levels of economic and institutional strength, that are supported by a rapidly growing and well-diversified economic structure," said Aninda Mitra, VP and senior analyst at Moody's.
